On November 13, 2023, in London, the first declaration of strategic dialogue between the Republic of Armenia and the United Kingdom was signed. This sparked hope that the long-stagnant Armenia-UK relations would gain new momentum. The declaration set a high bar by activating cooperation in various sectors, including economic development, international security, military-educational collaboration, reforms, and several other areas.
Today, nearly a year later, Armenia’s efforts are clearly visible. The country is attempting to initiate a new chapter in London, focusing on strengthening bilateral cooperation and enhancing its image as a nation progressing on a democratic path and striving for peace in the region. Armenia has significantly expanded the capacities of its embassy and has appointed one of its finest ambassadors to the United Kingdom.
Efforts are underway to restore direct air communication between London and Yerevan, strengthen inter-parliamentary relations, enhance economic cooperation and trade, expand educational and academic collaboration, and limit anti-Armenian narratives. At the same time, it is necessary to acknowledge that we do not see the same momentum and depth required for the relaunch of relations from the other side. In recent years, the UK has significantly reduced both the capital and human resources of its embassy in Armenia. London is hesitant to move forward in the field of military-technical cooperation, which had previously been restricted due to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
In general, Armenia continues to be outside the UK’s foreign policy priorities, both in terms of bilateral cooperation, organizing official visits, and the level of cooperation on multilateral platforms. On the other hand, with the Labour Party coming to power, new opportunities are emerging for reassessing foreign policy priorities and for greater UK involvement in various issues.
The European Union and the Eastern Partnership region hold primary importance in this regard. Although the new government has inherited serious internal economic and social issues—most notably in healthcare—and will be forced to focus on these urgently, in the medium and long term, the promotion of a new foreign policy will inevitably become a priority. The United Kingdom’s deeper and more strategic involvement could play a pivotal role in achieving lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, particularly since such involvement would align with the UK’s political and economic interests in the region.
In the past two years, there has been a unique opportunity to strengthen the sovereignty of countries in the South Caucasus, which could be realized through support for efforts aimed at peace and stability in the region. London’s engagement in these processes would complement the ongoing efforts of the United States and the European Union. It is especially important to consider that the recent aggressive rhetoric from Baku underscores the need for urgent action. In this respect, despite the substantial efforts primarily undertaken by the Armenian side, I believe the ball remains in our court. The challenge lies in awakening the island’s (the UK’s) interest in these ongoing processes.
The United Kingdom, in collaboration with its other Western allies, possesses both the tools and leverage to deter further aggression from Azerbaijan and to pressure it into a more constructive dialogue as long as bilateral peace negotiations continue. Responding to potential aggression and developments that could harm business interests will be significantly more complex than implementing a robust deterrence strategy. The latter could also mitigate the risk of a state coup supported by Russia in Armenia. Below, I present recommendations necessary for the realization of these objectives.
Suggestions
It is important that, especially after David Lammy’s recent inappropriate statements, the UK sends a clear message that stability in the region is an important prerequisite for continued business investments and economic cooperation, specifically in the energy sector. This will require tangible steps taken by Azerbaijan that clearly demonstrate a more constructive approach to the peace process. The UK’s investments in Azerbaijan significantly support the local economy. As Baku plans to significantly increase its energy exports to Europe, the UK can play a role in bringing Baku’s foreign policy to a more constructive field. Along with pushing Baku to finally sign the peace treaty with Armenia, it is equally important to be consistent in ensuring that Baku takes steps that will lead to lasting peace. This should include:
- The return of all 23 Armenian prisoners of war and other detainees. This is in line with the interim decision of the International Court of Justice, as well as calls from various international organizations and bodies.
- Withdrawal from the territories occupied in May 2021 and September 2022, based on the principles agreed upon in the 1991 Almaty Declaration. The created situation poses serious challenges for communities living near the affected border areas, in addition to violating the principles of territorial integrity and creating infrastructural challenges.
- Baku must cancel its demands of Armenia to provide a “corridor” (which is also repeated by Russia), exclusively under the “neutral control” of Russian border guards. The United Kingdom can support the concept of unblocking regional connections through transport routes passing through Armenia’s territory, strictly considering it under Armenia’s sovereignty.
To ensure regional stability, as a deterrent measure, the UK needs to have a clear policy and a comprehensive set of actions for the scenario if Azerbaijan decides to attack. The series of actions should consist of both targeted and economic sanctions, as well as asset freezing. These measures should be clearly presented to Baku, along with specifying the circumstances that would lead to the application of such measures. It is also in the United Kingdom’s interest to support the idea of creating a bilateral verification mechanism for border incidents between Armenia and Azerbaijan to prevent them in the future.
It is equally important that Armenia receives support from the United Kingdom, especially given the significant power imbalance between the two countries. Such assistance can come in various forms, including:
- Significantly expand the work of the embassy in Armenia.
- Support EUMA by joining the mission, as Canada has done. This would send a strong signal about the importance of regional stability and would be an important step towards stabilizing relations with the EU by the new government.
- Further and targeted support for Armenia’s economic diversification efforts will contribute to Armenia’s resilience. In this context, measures such as easier access to the British market for certain Armenian products, direct flights between the two countries, and trade missions to Armenia could be effective.
- More intensive support for the military education of Armenian officers, including in United Kingdom institutions, would also be very helpful.
- Deeper and more strategic relations with Armenia through an agreement similar to the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement between the EU and Armenia, as well as noting the importance of regional security in UK strategic documents.
It’s noteworthy that bilateral economic relations also have untapped potential at the moment. The United Kingdom has established preferential credit facilities of about 3 billion pounds sterling for investments from the UK to Armenia and British business activities. These resources can serve as a serious stimulus to elevate bilateral economic relations to a qualitatively new level. The willingness of the London Stock Exchange to work with Armenian companies is also important. I believe this is an opportunity that Armenian businesses should not pass up.
An important initiative would be the establishment of a new Armenian Studies center in the UK, funded by the Republic of Armenia. This center would focus on both studying and developing historical and cultural ties between the UK and Armenia, as well as countering anti-Armenian narratives that are widely spread on the island. Following the same logic, it is important to ensure the continuity of the Chevening academic cooperation program and to increase the quota allocated for Armenia.
In conclusion, it is crucial to emphasize that support for Armenia on the aforementioned issues must be urgent and transparent in order to counter the efforts of forces that claim the only option for Armenia to prevent further escalation with Azerbaijan is further integration with Russia. It is important for the Armenian society to see that the United Kingdom, alongside other Western allies, supports Armenia. The recent developments in Georgia further underscore the urgency of providing support to Armenia in an effort to prevent the Russianization of the region and the reproduction of authoritarian regimes.
Author: RCSP President Areg Kochinyan
