Trump’s foreign policy initiatives have created uncertainties in contemporary international relations. His style of acting, being contrary to recently accepted and understood game rules, is incomprehensible to many, while on the other hand, some followers of personal interests get excited and create unreasoned fears and expectations within society. In the global security context, this uncertainty has become a new challenge, in response to which new collaborative and counter projects have been emerging. Ultimately, what is the main trajectory of Trump’s foreign policy?
After meticulously analyzing Trump’s 1.5-month governance period, we can observe a clear pattern. It manifests in setting extremely high bars, trading around these bars, and ultimately reaching an agreement at some point.
For example, this was how the Panama Canal issue was resolved when Trump announced his intention to return it to the United States, but ultimately was satisfied with Panama’s announcement of not extending its contract with China.
Examining the processes through the lens of given logic, we can observe similar behavior towards Russia and Ukraine. On one hand, the Russo-Ukrainian war is called a disaster resulting in human casualties and devastation, on the other hand, Trump has set a resolution bar that would provide the United States with maximum gains without considering the potential benefits or losses of other parties (Russian Federation, Ukraine, European Union, etc.). The “trade” logic suggests that the other parties, primarily Ukraine and the European Union, must offer their price, which is indeed happening.
“Business politics” as performed by Trump implies examining economic interests as a key factor in geopolitics. Therefore, the formation of balances, resolution of situations, or the launch of new processes can be predicted through analyzing the “trade” logic.
Robert Ghevondyan
