Most of the analysts Eurasianet spoke to see Armenia exiting the CSTO as a logical possible outcome of the current strained relations between Armenia and Russia.
The head of the Research Center on Security Policy in Yerevan, Areg Kochinyan, says that Armenia could withdraw from the CSTO after approving a national security strategy that stipulates “non-bloc status” for the country. A new national security strategy is currently being drafted, and it’s unknown now whether it will contain such a provision.
If the national security strategy were amended so, “It would mean that Armenia has decided not to participate in any military bloc or alliance and therefore it would have to leave the CSTO. But at the same time it would mean that the country would not seek to become part of any other collective defense bloc,” Kochinyan told Eurasianet. “I think this position would be more acceptable for Russia and the other regional powers, Iran and Turkey.
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Areg Kochinyan, of the Research Center on Security Policy, believes that a “non-bloc status” could open up opportunities for expanding Armenia’s defense and military-industrial cooperation with various countries.
“We’re talking not just about the West, but also other countries like India, that produce weapons. Armenia can enhance its relations with them even to the level of strategic partnership,” he said.
