Armenia’s Inbound Tourism at a Volatile Frontier

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Introduction

Armenia experienced a strong influx of inbound visitors following the lifting of COVID-related travel restrictions in 2021. This growth was primarily driven by an influx of visitors from Russia, the country’s largest source market, accounting for approximately 49% of all arrivals in 2022. However, the appreciation of the Armenian dram vs the Russian ruble, beginning in 2023 and continuing throughout 2024, negatively affected the number of arrivals from Russia in 2024. This article aims to analyze tourism-related variables to assess the extent to which Armenia’s economy became vulnerable to the decline in Russian arrivals and to evaluate the medium-term implications. While Russian tourists played a pivotal role in driving the industry’s growth, Armenia could only offset tourism revenue losses by increasingly attracting inbound tourists from Europe and Asia in the medium term.

Influx of International Inbound Visitors to Armenia and a fall in per-visitor spending?

The number of international inbound visitors to Armenia increased at a compound annual growth rate of 46% from 2021 to 2024 —a substantial rise compared to 2021(see Table 1). However, the Russian tourist-led growth (see Table 2) reversed in 2024, primarily due to the appreciation of the Armenian dram. The dram’s appreciation against both the euro and the U.S. dollar (see Table 1) adversely affected per-visitor expenditures in both nominal and real terms.

	2021	2022	2023	2024
Expenditures by the international inbound visitors (US dollar)	784,201,032	2,439,093,583	3,009,289,294	2,441,232,222
Number of international inbound visitors	875,772	1,665,658	2,316,210	2,208,179
Exchange Rate (Armenian dram vs US dollar)	503.77	435.67	392.48	392.73
Exchange Rate (Armenian dram vs Euro dollar)	596.48	460.81	424.59	424.89
Exchange Rate (Armenian dram vs Russian ruble)	6.84	6.48	4.66	4.25
Expenditures by the international inbound visitors (Armenian dram)	395,056,954,077	1,062,639,901,171	1,181,085,862,068	958,745,130,362
Consumer Price Index	107.20	108.60	102.00	100.30
Expenditures per international inbound (Armenian dram)	451,096	637,970	509,922	434,179
Expenditures per international inbound visitor (Armenian dram, real; 2021=100)	451,096	587,449	460,335	390,785
Expenditures per international inbound visitor (US dollar)	895.44	1,464.34	1,299.23	1,105.54
Gross Domestic Product (US dollar)	13,879,000,000	19,514,000,000	24,186,000,000	25,955,000,000
Expenditures by the international inbound visitors-to-GDP ratio	5.65%	12.50%	12.44%	9.41%

Table 1. Tourism industry performance[i]

Expenditures by the international inbound visitors in U.S. dollars nearly tripled in 2022 following the full reopening of borders and a surge in arrivals from Russia. Although total inbound visitor spending continued to increase in 2023, the growth rate decelerated. By 2024, nominal tourism receipts had returned to approximately the 2022 level, reflecting a 5% decline in arrivals (see Table 1).

The Contribution of International Inbound Visitor Expenditures to the Economy

Expenditures by international inbound visitors rose from 5.7% of GDP in 2021 to more than 12 % in 2022–23, before declining to 9.4 % as GDP continued to expand and per-visitor spending decreased (see Table 1). Despite this decline, the tourism industry remains a pivotal contributor to economic growth. With re-exports projected to decline in the 2025-2026 period, the tourism sector is expected to come under increased pressure and will likely be regarded as a critical source of foreign exchange earnings, thus partially mitigating the current account imbalance.    

Major Trends and Expectations

Armenia is increasingly emerging as an attractive travel destination outside the Eurasian Economic Union, particularly in the following ways:

• Transit destination: Armenia has successfully positioned itself as a transit destination, notably attracting Filipino travelers who are employed in the United Arab Emirates and required to leave the country temporarily to renew their visas. Armenia’s geographic proximity, cultural openness, and hospitality, aligned with Western values, have made it a preferred short-stay destination before re-entry to the Gulf region. Although the number of travelers declined in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, Armenia may still attract more visitors in the 2025–2026 period overall.
• Attractive Destination for European Travelers: Despite a decline in the average length of stay among certain European inbound visitors (notably from France), the appreciation of the Armenian dram against both the euro and the U.S. dollar has led travelers to reduce spending and/or opt for more budget-friendly accommodation. The opening of Wizz Air’s first base in Yerevan, with direct flights to eight destinations in six countries starting in the fourth quarter of 2025[ii], is expected to attract more European visitors due to low-cost airfare. This development may help offset the increased travel cost caused by the strong dram. While Armenia could see an increase in European inbound visitors in 2025 compared to 2024, a more substantial surge may occur in 2026, assuming economic conditions in the Eurozone do not deteriorate.

Country	2021		2022		2023
	Number of tourists	Average duration of stay, person-day	Number of tourists	Average duration of stay, person-day	Number of tourists	Average duration of stay, person-day
Russia	351 801	25	790 397	25	1 137 005	25
Iran	91 335	25	116 430	26	149 539	26
Georgia	71 221	36	175 046	31	252 670	28
USA	31 943	32	50 749	30	57 389	26
Ukraine	22 221	18	18 149	27	26 452	23
India	18 206	15	18 194	12	34 982	20
France	14 282	26	23 272	24	27 513	22
Germany	12 007	19	23 674	18	27 820	17
Netherlands	7 641	27	11 000	26	13 166	25
Belarus	7 270	13	17 162	13	17 400	13
UAE	6 441	8	7 648	9	7 732	8
Belgium	5 782	27	8 008	28	9 114	26
Kazakhstan	5 471	23	10 773	24	9 821	23
Philippines	4 465	6	8 798	6	19 729	5
China	767	23	5 465	17	19 893	6
South Korea	198	23	1 728	10	6 751	4
Turkey	3 740	20	9 479	19	12 215	17
United Kingdom	3 776	24	8 777	18	12 203	15
Poland	4 193	13	7 005	13	9 565	12
Italy	2 225	25	4 533	16	13 723	11
Total	875 772	31	1 665 658	31	2 316 210	29

	2024		2024 (Q1)		2025 (Q1)
Country	Number of tourists	Average duration of stay, person-day	Number of tourists	Average duration of stay, person-day	Number of tourists	Average duration of stay, person-day
Russia	937 823	24	184 317	25	144 072	28
Iran	176 453	26	33 729	28	34 369	30
Georgia	266 048	27	61 830	27	59 624	30
USA	58 965	26	4 942	31	4 466	33
Ukraine	28 238	22	5 542	23	5 061	27
India	43 672	27	13 216	43	6 019	16
France	30 194	5	3 501	26	3 826	28
Germany	28 717	18	3 649	21	3 373	24
Netherlands	14 350	25	1 796	29	1 693	31
Belarus	16 963	12	3 124	13	2 906	16
UAE	7 539	8	1 785	7	2 028	7
Belgium	9 783	26	1 106	30	1 069	31
Kazakhstan	10 236	24	2 109	28	1 922	30
Philippines	24 755	5	9 417	4	7 140	5
China	32 826	6	2 757	7	3 863	12
South Korea	13 966	4	302	14	212	9
Turkey	12 652	17	2 382	20	2 422	19
United Kingdom	11 793	16	1 561	19	1 529	20
Poland	11 241	10	995	19	1 078	19
Italy	15 968	11	2 594	14	3 017	11
Total	2 208 179	29	435 775	33	386 741	35

Table 2. Armenia’s Leading Source Destinations, and the Length of Stay[iii]

• Emerging attractive destination for Asian countries: Armenia has begun attracting a growing number of visitors from countries such as China, South Korea, Japan, and Singapore— source markets that remain relatively untapped and are classified as upper-middle-income and high-income countries. Given this trend and relying on organic growth mechanisms such as word-of-mouth and storytelling, Armenia could draw significantly more visitors from these Asian countries during the 2025-2026 period, particularly if these economies continue to report economic growth.

Overall

Since the decline in the number of international visitors was outpaced by a sharper decline in expenditures by inbound tourists, several key observations can be made:

• Russian Inbound Visitors: Among Russian visitors, it was primarily non-Diasporan travelers who opted not to visit Armenia. This decline was likely influenced by concerns over Russia’s economic outlook—constraining household budgets and prompting travelers to choose less expensive destinations—as well as by the appreciation of the Armenian dram, or a combination of both factors. Notably, the average duration of stay remained unchanged in 2024 compared to 2023. As a result, only relatively affluent travelers —those with savings and stable incomes, primarily from major metropolitan areas such as Moscow— were able to afford trips to Armenia. In 2025-2026, a significant decline in the number of Russian travelers is expected, while the number of Diasporan visitors will likely remain broadly stable, with a slight decline. This trend may persist if the Armenian dram continues to appreciate against the Russian ruble in the second half of 2025 and if Russia’s economy avoids a severe downturn.
• European and Asian Visitors: Although Armenia succeeded in attracting a growing number of visitors from European and Asian source markets, the exchange rate remained a key factor negatively impacting visitor spending. The appreciation of the Armenian dram forced many travelers to opt for budget accommodations and limit discretionary expenditures. As a result, the decline in spending by Russian tourists was not fully offset by increased arrivals from upper-middle-income and high-income countries, whose average per-visitor expenditures in 2024 were lower than in 2023.  

Conclusion

Although the number of travelers from key source markets increased, their spending was insufficient to offset the decline in export receipts resulting from the reduced number of inbound visitors—particularly non-Diasporan travelers from Russia—in 2024 compared to 2023. These Russian visitors likely had relatively higher spending levels. A continued increase in the number of inbound visitors from upper-middle-income and high-income countries may not fully compensate for the revenue losses unless the Armenian dram depreciates against the U.S. dollar and the euro in 2025 and over the medium term.

Authors

Anna Makaryan, Ph.D. in Economics, Nexus Intellect Research NGO & M. Kotanyan Institute of Economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia, https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0505-7869

Hamlet Mkrtchyan, Ph.D. in Economics, Nexus Intellect Research NGO & Armenian State University of Economics, https://orcid.org/0009-0002-8588-2921  

Verej Isanians, Ph.D. in Public Policy, Nexus Intellect Research NGO, https://orcid.org/0009-0008-1145-9251  

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[i] Statistical Committee of Armenia (SCA), Central Bank of Armenia (CBA). Authors calculation.

[ii] Wizz Air. (2025, April 23). Wizz Air opens its first base in Yerevan with 2 aircraft and 8 new direct routes to Europe. Retrieved from: https://www.wizzair.com/en-gb/information-and-services/about-us/news/wizz-air-opens-its-first-base-in-yerevan-with-2-aircraft-and-8-new-direct-routes-to-europe (wizzair.com), (Date of access: 14.05.2025).

[iii] Statistical Committee of Armenia (SCA).