During the presidential campaign, U.S. President Donald Trump’s main promise — to end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours — garnered significant domestic support. This bold confidence bolstered his chances of securing enough votes to bypass his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, which eventually came to fruition. However, immediately after assuming office, Trump first declared that the 24-hour timeline had been a joke, stating that “a bit more time” was required. He then began applying considerable pressure on Ukraine, simultaneously courting Russia, despite the fact that key European allies of the U.S. generally supported Ukraine. This political maneuver initially raised some hopes of success, with certain Armenian experts even optimistically “prophesying” Russia’s imminent victory and the return of Armenia to Russian influence. However, over time, it became clear that things were far from straightforward.
The dispute with Zelensky at the White House revealed that Ukraine was far from inclined to “bow its head” and accept any offer. Moreover, the swift agreement between U.S. and Ukrainian representatives after the meeting to cease hostilities for 30 days raised significant doubts. This suggested that the White House might have orchestrated the event as a well-planned political maneuver to shift Russia’s approach positively. However, it is now apparent that the expected outcome has not materialized. Russia has effectively refused to accept the U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, instead offering to replace it with an agreement not to strike energy infrastructure. This proposal does not align with Ukraine’s vision, leading to intentional strikes by Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure in recent weeks.
It can already be concluded that Trump’s initiative, at least in its entirety, has failed. It appears that this is also understood in Washington. For example, Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that it would take a few weeks to determine whether Moscow truly desires peace. Just days ago, Trump’s furious statements underscored doubts about a successful outcome. Additionally, new sanctions have been imposed on Russia by the U.S., while National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has drawn attention to the potential for blocking 70% of Russian oil products circulating in the shadow market in the Baltic Sea.
These developments demonstrate that the end of the war is not only uncertain in terms of timing but also in terms of its eventual outcome, as both sides still possess sufficient resources to continue the conflict. The primary question at this juncture is whether the U.S. will increase its support for Ukraine and intensify pressure on Russia, or whether Trump will continue attempting to de-escalate the conflict through appeasing and enticing Russia. In either case, the end of the Russia-Ukraine war remains distant and uncertain.
